Japan’s Rising Ambitions Could Spark a New Crisis in Asia-Pacific—And China and Russia Are Sounding the Alarm. But here’s where it gets controversial: while many view Japan as a stable ally in the region, a former Chinese diplomat warns it could become the most direct and serious threat to both Beijing and Moscow. Let’s break this down.
Wu Hailong, a seasoned diplomat who served as China’s assistant minister of foreign affairs from 2009 to 2011 and now leads the China Public Diplomacy Association, delivered a stark warning at a recent forum in Beijing. Co-hosted by Guancha’s Beijing Club for International Dialogue and Russia’s Valdai Discussion Club, the event brought together over 20 analysts from both nations to discuss pressing geopolitical issues.
“When we talk about China-Russia relations, we can’t ignore the Japan factor,” Wu emphasized, according to Guancha. “Both nations must unite to prevent Japan from stirring up trouble in the Asia-Pacific region.” This statement comes amid escalating tensions sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks, which suggested Japan might intervene militarily if Taiwan faced an existential threat. Beijing swiftly condemned these comments as blatant interference in China’s internal affairs and a departure from Tokyo’s long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan.
And this is the part most people miss: Wu pointed to Japan’s historical colonial rule over Taiwan, accusing Tokyo of colluding with pro-independence forces for decades. “Japan is the last country that wants to see cross-strait reunification, and it’s the primary external force obstructing it,” he argued. He also criticized Japan for failing to genuinely reflect on its World War II aggression and warned of its growing militarization, which he believes targets both China and Russia.
Here’s the controversial question: Is Japan’s military expansion a defensive measure or a revival of its imperial ambitions? Wu’s answer is clear: “Japan’s military power is expanding rapidly, and it poses a direct threat to China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific.” He stressed that both nations, as victors of World War II, share a responsibility to defend the post-war order and warned of “catastrophic consequences” if Japan’s resurgence goes unchecked.
Wu also addressed China’s stance on the Ukraine war, highlighting Beijing’s commitment to an “objective and impartial” position while maintaining close ties with Moscow. “No matter how global dynamics shift, China and Russia will remain steadfast partners,” he assured. However, he dismissed concerns that Russia might reduce its reliance on China if the Ukraine conflict ends, calling such worries “entirely unnecessary.”
Turning to Europe, Wu described the continent as mired in “extreme confusion” over its strategic direction, particularly in its relationship with Russia. He noted that the U.S. has sidelined Europe in Ukraine negotiations, leaving European leaders in an awkward position. “Europe is waking up to the risks of over-reliance on Washington, but it lacks the courage to break free,” he observed. Wu urged European leaders to pursue pragmatic cooperation with China, warning that hesitation could cost them vital economic opportunities.
Here’s the counterpoint: While Wu advocates for stronger China-Europe ties, some argue that Beijing’s alignment with Moscow undermines its credibility as a neutral partner. What do you think? Is China’s stance on Russia a barrier to deeper cooperation with Europe, or is it a necessary strategic choice?
Finally, Wu highlighted French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to China, which resulted in 12 agreements spanning nuclear energy, education, and even panda conservation. “Partnering with the world’s second-largest economy is pragmatic,” Wu noted, adding that China is “patiently awaiting EU shifts without urgency.”
The bottom line: As tensions rise in the Asia-Pacific, China and Russia are calling for vigilance against Japan’s growing assertiveness. But is this a justified concern or an overreaction? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below. After all, in a region where history and ambition collide, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
